New Texas Maps Start Game of Political Musical Chairs

After two weeks spent outside state lines marked by a surge of national media attention and then a struggle to keep their fight in the limelight Texas House Democrats ended their quorum break as abruptly as a second special session began Within a meager days the Republicans scheme to engineer a rare mid-decade redistricting of the state s congressional maps had been rammed through the Texas House and Senate What began as a demand from on high i e the Trump administration and sparked a national partisan gerrymandering arms race has become the new political reality now that Governor Greg Abbott signed House Bill into law on Friday Democrats knew there was nothing they really could do to stop passage of the new maps upon their return and they thus claimed their walkout to be victorious because it had successfully spurred Texas rival mega-blue state California to advance a new map of its own that would nuke its already-marginal number of Republican seats In essence Republicans new congressional maps revert to the strategy that reigned in the s Texas blue urban cores in Houston San Antonio Austin Dallas and Fort Worth were sliced and diced into a handful of uber-blue seats while the rest were annexed into Republican strongholds in the rural hinterlands The power of liberal voters and predominantly Black and Latino communities was diluted while conservative largely white voters power was maximized The new maps also have the GOP making a risky bet that crucial gains that Trump enjoyed among Latino voters in especially along the U S -Mexico demarcation were more than a flash in the pan These changes have overhauled the electoral playing field in Texas for the midterms and could deliver the GOP as multiple as five additional seats in the U S House of Representatives and provide enough political cushion for the party to maintain control of the chamber and shield Donald Trump s administration from electoral accountability and Democratic-led oversight In doing so the new maps have also thrown various chaos and opportunity into both parties Ambitious Republican pols now have a handful of additional seats to compete for and Democratic pols have fewer seats to fight over With redistricting inevitably comes bitter and contested intra-party disputes between various incumbents and would-be elected administrators We ve already seen selected abbreviated political drama play out between the two Texas congressmen from the capital city longtime liberal institution Lloyd Doggett and up-and-coming progressive Greg Casar Doggett s -year career in the U S House is a testament to his survival of multiple attempts by Republicans to draw him out of power by expanding his district all the way down to the Rio Grande Valley and San Antonio In the GOP in the end ceded Austin by creating a new uber-blue seat the th Congressional District which Doggett ran for and won in Then-City Councilman Casar ran for and won Doggett s old seat the th which stretched from East Austin down to San Antonio Then Republicans decided to carve up Travis County once again In doing so they excised the th from Austin and reassembled it as a Trump-y district that features part of Bexar County and three neighboring deep-red counties Foreseeing a likely primary showdown Doggett went on the offensive earlier this month with a preemptive call for Casar to commit to running for reelection in the th insisting that Casar as the nominal incumbent in a Hispanic-majority district would be the strongest candidate Doggett s self-serving argument did not go well for the -year-old even among his allies who declared it was time for him to step aside for a new generation On the eve of the passage of redistricting last week Doggett disclosed that he would not be seeking reelection under the new map clearing the way for Casar in the th Such redistricting spats do not generally end so smoothly And more could be on the horizon Houston s longtime Democratic Congressman Al Green an outspoken Trump opponent was drawn out of the predominantly Black th Congressional District that he s represented since and the th itself was turned into a strong Trump-aligned seat in suburban and exurban Houston Much of the old th was moved into the reconstituted th Congressional District another historically Black seat that s been held by the likes of Barbara Jordan Mickey Leland and Sheila Jackson Lee Ex-Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner was elected to fill the seat after Jackson Lee passed away last year but he only served three months before passing away himself in March Governor Greg Abbott intentionally left that seat vacant refusing to call a special poll until this November in order to deprive Democrats of a member in Washington and in hindsight to gain certain leverage in the redrawing of Texas congressional map Now Green has broadcasted that he s considering running to represent the th for a full term in but will not run in the special ballot this fall because that would require him stepping down from his current seat Green who is would instantly be the clear frontrunner for the seat though his running could mean preventing the next generation of Houston pols like Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee or former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards both of whom are running in the special from taking the step up There could be particular other prospective headaches in Dallas where Jasmine Crockett was drawn out of the th Congressional District a historically Black seat that was previously long-held by Eddie Bernice Johnson There is no requirement that members of Congress reside in the districts they represent though it makes for easy fodder for attacks from political rivals but the changes have caused Crockett to publicly consider her future options including a prospective statewide run Meanwhile the rd Congressional District which has historically been based primarily in Fort Worth is getting blown up and has been entirely excised from Tarrant County It s now a Dallas-only district That leaves Fort Worth Congressman Marc Veasey who s represented the rd since in a potentially tricky situation While he s far from an unknown entity in the Big D Veasey could be vulnerable to a primary challenge from someone with a political base in Dallas That could include first-term Congresswoman Julie Johnson who just not long ago won the nd Congressional District in the Dallas metro in a seat that Colin Allred first flipped back in or particular other ambitious Dallas state legislator Republicans also blew up the nd and made it back into a solid red seat by turning it into a chicken finger-like district that extends from Dallas deep into East Texas Meanwhile the newly created suite of freshly reddened congressional districts sparked a frantic event of political musical chairs with Republicans rushing to declare their candidacy for the various seats That includes right-wing state Representative Briscoe Cain who launched his campaign for the new th outside Houston last Thursday less than hours after the maps passed the Texas House Others vying for that seat include ex-Harris County judge candidate Alexandra del Moral Mealer and per the rumor mill disgraced ex-tea party Congressman Steve Stockman who was convicted of felony money laundering back in Former ever so briefly Congresswoman Mayra Flores has also abandoned her broadcasted bid to run against Laredo Democrat Henry Cuellar and is instead going back for another shot at a reddened th Congressional District in the Rio Grande Valley at this time held by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez So too is the brother of state Senator Adam Hinojosa who flipped a geographically similar state Senate seat in State Representative John Lujan who won a San Antonio swing seat in has also declared for the new th in what will also surely be a crowded GOP primary With the maps passed the music has stopped And the rush for an open seat begins The post New Texas Maps Start Contest of Political Musical Chairs appeared first on 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